Discounting: Future Cash to Today’s Value
How to translate cash a business will earn for years into a single number you can compare to price.
A business willArranging how your wealth passes on after death. (hopefully) generate free cash flowCash left after running and reinvesting in the business. every year for decades. Discounting is how you collapse all that futureA binding agreement to buy or sell at a set price on a future date. cash into one number — its value today — that you can compare against the price.
- Estimate the free cash flowCash left after running and reinvesting in the business. the business willArranging how your wealth passes on after death. produce each year into the futureA binding agreement to buy or sell at a set price on a future date..
- Discount each year’s cash back to today using (1 + r)^n — distant years shrink the most.
- Add up all those present values. That sum is the estimated intrinsic valueWhat an asset is really worth, based on its fundamentals..
Because you can’t forecast forever, a DCF usually projects ~5–10 explicit years, then adds a “terminal value” capturing everything after. The next lesson walks through a simple one.
Why do distant years matter so little?
Because compounding the discount rate shrinks far-off cash dramatically — at 10%, cash 20 years out is worth only ~15% of its face value today. So near-term cash flows and the growth rate dominate a DCF, while very distant years contribute little.