Robustness & Walk-Forward
Stress-testing a strategy so you trust it before risking money on it.
Lessons
- Walk-Forward AnalysisRepeatedly optimise on the past and test on the next slice — the gold standard for honesty.
- Parameter SensitivityA good strategy works across a range of settings. If only one magic number works, run.
- Monte Carlo SimulationReshuffle your trades thousands of times to see the range of outcomes luck could have dealt.
- Cross-Validation for StrategiesBorrowing a machine-learning trick to test a strategy on many independent slices of history.
- Stress-Testing Against CrashesReplay 2008, 2020 and 2022 explicitly. A strategy that survives those has earned some trust.